First 
Bet like a GOAT.
Not like a fan.
The greats did not win on talent alone. They won on preparation, discipline and an obsession with process. Most bettors do the opposite: random plays, parlays, no bankroll plan. This site is about doing it the other way.
What first principles means here
Strip betting down to the things that are actually true, then build everything on top of them. Three facts do most of the work.
The price is the game
At -110 you risk 110 to win 100. That vig means you need 52.38% just to break even. Everything you do is about beating that number, not picking "winners."
Variance is brutal
Even a genuine 57% bettor loses money in plenty of months. If your bet size cannot survive a long cold streak, your edge never gets a chance to show up.
Process over results
A bad bet can win and a good bet can lose. Grading yourself on outcomes alone, what Annie Duke calls resulting, teaches you the wrong lessons.
Four numbers. One standard.
We do not bet because these athletes did. We borrow the habits that made them great and apply them to a game most people play lazily.
Seven rings built on a boring routine repeated for 23 seasons. Your routine is bet sizing and line shopping. Do it every time.
Cut from varsity, then the most relentless practice habit in the sport. Winning follows preparation, not the other way around.
When the play breaks down, find the next best option instead of forcing the first one. In betting, that means passing when the number is gone.
4 a.m. workouts and film on his own game. Track every bet you make and study the losses harder than the wins.
The parlay is the house's favorite bet
Every leg of a parlay carries its own vig, and the book multiplies them together. Ed Miller and Matthew Davidow put it plainly in The Logic of Sports Betting: if your individual bets are bad, a parlay just loses the money faster. Billy Walters calls parlays and teasers sucker bets, and he is the most successful sports bettor on record.
The pros bet straight. One side, one price, one decision you can grade later. That is the only way to learn whether you actually have an edge.
All the house rules
Do the math before the bet
Three calculators built around the same idea: decide how much you can lose, size every bet off that number, and know what your win rate actually buys you.
Bankroll builder
Pick the amount you can afford to lose completely, move it into one account, never add to it. We turn it into a standard bet and a press bet.
OpenUnit sizer
What a unit is (1% of bankroll), why our standard play is 5 units and our press is 7.5, and how to translate any bet into units.
OpenExpectation calculator
Bet size, bets per month, win rate and average odds in. Expected monthly profit, break-even and the odds of a losing month out.
OpenWe grade ourselves in public
We follow one handicapper and log every pick, win or lose, by sport. Because a bettor who does not track is guessing about his own edge, and guessing is how bankrolls die.
Read the three books
Almost everything on this site comes from three books: Annie Duke's Thinking in Bets, Ed Miller and Matthew Davidow's The Logic of Sports Betting, and Billy Walters' Gambler. We summarize the parts that matter on the Principles page.
Go to the reading listBet like a GOAT. Get the plays.
Bankroll discipline. No parlays. Every pick graded in public. The Plays delivers every play the tracker grades through Whop with a push notification, labeled standard play, press play or small play so you can size it with the 5, 7.5 and 1 unit convention.
7-day free trial. Then $49.99 a month, locked in at that rate for as long as you stay. Cancel during the trial and you pay nothing. Or go annual: $419.99 a year, 30% less than paying monthly, same lock, same free trial.
A card is required to start the trial and billing begins automatically when it ends unless you cancel first. One trial per person. Whoever joins at a given price keeps that price while their membership stays active.
Read this before you join
- Zero refunds. All sales are final. Cancel before the trial ends and you are never charged. Cancel later and you keep access through the period you paid for.
- No guarantees. We do not guarantee any record, win rate or result. Past results do not predict future results.
- Enter at your own risk. The plays are one handicapper's opinions for entertainment. Every bet is your decision. Only gamble money you can afford to lose completely.
- 21+ and where legal. Know the law where you live.
Billing and your account are handled by Whop under its own terms. See our Terms of Use.
Already a member? Set up the app.
Four steps so no play reaches you late.
- Sign in with the email you used at checkout.
Your membership is tied to that email. Tap Your whops, then First Principles Plays.
- Open The Plays.
Every play posts there, labeled standard play (5 units), press play (7.5 units) or small play (1 unit). The Locker Room is the members chat. Direct link once you are signed in: The Plays feed.
- Turn on notifications.
Tap the bell at the top of The Plays and choose Everything. Whop defaults to mentions only, so skip this and you will miss plays. When your phone asks, allow notifications for Whop. Every play also goes out by email to the address on your Whop account, so check spam the first time and mark it safe.
Only play with what you can lose
We say it on every page because it is the whole point. Decide the number, accept that it may go to zero, and never top it up. If that sentence makes you uncomfortable, the right bet size is zero.
Read Play Smart